Five key points to help with following the US election results
As millions of US citizens cast their vote in the highly anticipated US election, we spoke with Dr Clifford Williamson, Senior Lecturer in History at BSU, about a few things that are useful to know, and to look out for, as you watch the election results come in on the other side of the Atlantic.
- Popular Vote vs the Electoral College. The US Presidency is decided not by the popular vote but by the Electoral College. Each state elects a number of delegates, based roughly on population, who cast their votes at a special event in December. In 2000 and in 2016 the candidate who won the most votes did not win the Presidency as they did not pick up the largest number of electors in the College.
- Early returns. Lots of states now have early voting, postal voting and electronic voting. Watch for Georgia and North Carolina as their polls close at 7pm EST (midnight here), and for Michigan and Wisconsin an hour later. Pennsylvania, arguably the most important swing state, may take longer to call, while Arizona and Nevada may take up to a week to gather their results. All of these are swing states, so the two major political parties have similar levels of support among voters and are viewed as significant in determining the result of the overall election.
- Men vs Women. All the polls suggest that partisanship in the US is taking on a gendered nature. Kamala Harris has been endorsed by Taylor Swift, and Donald Trump has been appearing on the 'bro-shows' of the likes of Youtuber Joe Rogan. The 2022 overturning of Roe v Wade, the Supreme Court ruling that guaranteed abortion rights for women, has transformed the election. Lots of commentators are suggesting that the turnout by women may be decisive.
- October gaffes. In the space of two days last week Republican speakers insulted Puerto Ricans, and Democratic President Joe Biden appeared to call Trump supporters garbage. How will this impact the race in galvanising turnout in key states?
- Will the election be challenged in the courts or Congress? The 2000 and 2020 Presidential Elections both were held up by legal challenges. There was also the possibility of the US Congress intervening as it did in 1824 and 1876 (this was also the closest US President race where the result was decided by one electoral college vote) to basically fix the result.
Did you catch Dr Williamson on local radio this week? He’s been chatting to BBC Radio Bristol and BBC Radio Somerset about the US election. Catch up on BBC Sounds.